A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
